Liu Yi, reporter of Yangcheng Evening News, Xu Yangyang, Zhao Liangchen
the rigorous and gossipy “top of the football world 2+1” arrived as promised! Yangcheng Evening News reporter Liu Yi (hereinafter referred to as “Liu”), Zhao Liangchen (hereinafter referred to as “Zhao”), Xu Yangyang (hereinafter referred to as “Xu”) the topic of this issue is how to play the new competition system when the World Cup has been determined to expand to 48 teams since 2026? What are the advantages and disadvantages of World Cup expansion? Can Chinese men’s football team be shortlisted?
The expansion of the World Cup has aroused heated discussion
Zhao: on March 15, Beijing time, FIFA officially announced that the World Cup will expand into 48 participating teams starting from the 2026 US-Canada-Mexico World Cup. The United States and Mexico are not the United States and Mexico, but the United States, Canada and Mexico jointly hold this World Cup. 48 teams were divided into 12 groups, 4 teams in each group. The first two teams and the third group with 8 good scores entered the top 32, and then entered the World Cup elimination system.
Xu: In the past, the popular competition system was that 48 teams were divided into 16 groups, with three teams in each group. The top two teams in each group entered the elimination match of the top 32. This competition system is very asymmetric, and there will be empty teams in each round. The group match interval of each team is long or short options. The game of the same group does not end at the same time, so it is easy to “play with the cat”. In the last round, the team that had played two rounds was very passive.
Liu: The competition system of the legendary 16 groups and 3 teams in each group is obviously unscientific, not like the World Cup competition. The team that finished two group matches first, and the last round was likely to see the other two teams “arrange” his fate. The team that was out of the group match came to play two games. It was a joke that it might not even earn money for the plane ticket and walk back to the World Cup, but it was not natural and unrestrained.
Arithmetic questions will still appear
Zhao: it is more reasonable for each group of four teams. FIFA is very much looking forward to the complicated situation of multiple possibilities in the final round of the group match. Take the Qatar World Cup at the end of last year as an example. Germany, Spain, Japan and Costa Rica formed the “death Group”. I remember that in the last two rounds of the group match, the outgoing team has changed and reversed seven or eight times, so the exciting “script” is difficult to happen when there are only three teams in a group.
Xu: after the competition system of 48 teams divided into 12 groups has been determined, what we are talking about now is that the third of the 8 teams can also be qualified. Some people worry that there will be too many qualified teams, whether it will affect the excitement of the competition. I think there is no need to worry, even if there are individual strong and weak matches in the elimination stage, it will not affect the overall excitement. After all, the World Cup is the highest level of competition. Everyone attaches great importance to it and no one will take it lightly.
Liu: no matter 24 teams, 32 teams or 48 teams take part in the competition, the first two rounds of group matches play a game, and the third round is often a arithmetic question, there are always various calculations for choosing opponents and routing paths in knockout matches. Let’s not underestimate the team that qualified as the third in the group. When Portugal won the championship in Euro 2016, it was qualified as the third in the group, italy, led by Baggio, entered the final in the 1994 World Cup and also qualified as the third in the group.
Stage a strong dialogue early?
Zhao: the third of the 8 teams with better scores can also qualify, which gives some strong teams the opportunity to correct errors. After all, some strong teams will be slow and hot in the competition. If some strong teams do not perform well in one or even two rounds, they may not be able to qualify in the competition system where only two teams can qualify in each group, for example, Belgium, the second place in the 2018 World Cup, only ranked third in the 2022 World Cup, but under the new World Cup system, it is still likely to qualify for the third place in the group with better results.
Xu: in the previous World Cup, the group went out to the top 16, and later the group went out to the top 32. Most of the first team will face the third team, so there may be a situation where strong teams meet early, and it may also become a hotbed of explosion. The 1/16 final has never appeared in the World Cup before, and it will become the norm in the future. No matter there is a strong dialogue or a cold door, it will be loved by fans.
Liu: Many fans would like to see the strong dialogue in advance. No matter the national team competition or the club competition, everyone is often not afraid of big things. Taking the Champions League 1/8 final this season as an example, Bayern Munich met Paris Saint-Germain in advance and Real Madrid met Liverpool in advance. They were rivals in the Champions League finals from 2019 to 2020 and last season, who let Greater Paris and Liverpool only qualify as the second in the Champions League?
Fans are more tired than players
Zhao: After the revision of the World Cup, the number of matches in each session will increase from 64 to 104. The World Cup in Qatar lasted 28 days, and the next World Cup would last 40 days. The elimination of the World Cup added a 1/16 final. The festival of fans has been extended, in turn, will it cause the fans double fatigue in terms of aesthetics and physical fitness? The workload of the players is also of concern to everyone. Whether the players are overloaded or not is worthy of careful monitoring by FIFA. FIFA plans to set up a new player health protection working group. The task of this working group is to formulate the player’s health strategy.
Xu: I have calculated this question carefully. The World Cup has increased from 64 to 104, which actually has little influence on each team. Each team has to play three group matches, and the outgoing teams have to play the 1/16 final, 1/8 final, 1/4 final, semi-final, final (or the third place Battle) in turn, only the teams entering the top four eventually need to participate in 8 games. The teams entering the top four before have to play 7 games in total, which actually adds a 1/16 final. The next World Cup will be held in summer. The interval from the end of the league to the beginning of the World Cup is similar to that before. Although the World Cup lasted 40 days, I think this extension is acceptable.
Liu: in order to cope with the impact of the new Championship epidemic, Qatar World Cup and Euro Cup held in 2021 allow each team to sign up for a maximum of 26 players instead of the traditional 23 players. France actually brought only 25 players in the World Cup, while Spain actually brought only 24 players in the European Cup. FIFA or UEFA allowed each team to recruit up to 26 players in the competition, and many celebrities felt that they did not need so many players. According to the size of 26 players, it should be enough to cope with the expansion of the World Cup, and there is no need to further increase the number of players participating.
How can Chinese men’s football team be shortlisted for plus-sized?
Zhao: the World Cup has expanded into 48 teams, with 8.5 places in Asia. Fans are generally concerned about whether the Chinese men’s football team can enter the World Cup again since 2002. If the host Qatar is not included in the 2022 World Cup, the Asian qualifier of the World Cup will compete for 4.5 places, and the top two teams in the top 12 will be directly qualified by Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Japan, australia defeated the United Arab Emirates in the Third Battle of the group, and defeated Peru in the FIFA World Cup qualification intercontinental play-off by penalty kick. It also won the World Cup tickets.
Xu: I have carefully looked at the current FIFA national team ranking. The top ten countries in Asia are Japan, Iran, South Korea, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, UAE, Oman, uzbekistan, China ranks 11th in Asia. We should not only look forward, but also look back. The teams such as Jordan, Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon, Thailand, Kuwait and Vietnam, which are behind the national football team, may not be sure of winning. Therefore, it is still difficult and opportunity for the national football team to compete for the tickets for the World Cup after the expansion of the Army.
Liu: In the final stage of the 2022 World Cup Asian qualifiers, the top 12 matches were divided into two groups. The first two of the groups went out directly, and the two groups played a third play-off match, the winner went to compete with the fifth Peru in South America for a World Cup ticket. The Chinese men’s football team ranked fifth in Group B of the top 12 and Syria ranked fifth in Group A. According to the calculation of 8.5 qualifying places in the future, after removing the first four teams of the two groups, a total of 8 teams, the Chinese men’s football team can theoretically rank ninth in total and compete for a World Cup ticket through the play-off.
Zhao: the rules of the 2026 World Cup Asian qualifier have changed. 22 teams ranked 26th to 47th in Asia will have two rounds of duel, and 11 winning teams will advance to the second stage. The top 25 teams in Asia and 11 first-stage promotion teams were divided into 9 groups (4 teams in each group) for the main and away round-robin tournament in the second stage, the first two teams (18 in total) were promoted to the third stage.
Liu: In the competition for the top 18 in the third stage, 18 teams will be divided into 3 groups (6 teams in each group) for the main and away round-robin tournament, the top two in each group (6 in total) are directly qualified for the 2026 World Cup. In the fourth stage, the third and fourth place (6 in total) of the three groups in the third stage will be divided into two groups (3 teams in each group) for single-cycle duel. The first place of the two teams directly advanced to the 2026 World Cup. The two second teams will decide the winner through a play-off match. The winning team will represent Asia in the intercontinental play-off of the World Cup qualifier. The FIFA World Cup qualification competition system is more complicated, and the opportunity for the national football team is coming!
Yangcheng Evening News, March 16, 2023, A11 edition
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